Condoms aren't selling well, but sex toys are flying off the shelves.
Have you heard of the "condom paradox"?
It refers to the phenomenon where condom sales actually increase during economic downturns. The reason is that when people reduce their spending on going out and entertainment, they spend more time at home, leading to an increase in sexual activity and a counter-cyclical increase in condom sales.
This phenomenon has been repeatedly confirmed throughout history. During the Great Depression in the United States from 1929 to 1933, annual condom production surged from approximately 100 million to 500 million; during the 2008 global financial crisis, offline sales in China increased by an average of 30-40%, and sales in South Korea increased by 19.3% during the same period. The "condom paradox" was therefore once considered a "barometer" of the economic cycle.
Because of this, in 2020, Karex Berhad, the world's largest condom manufacturer, optimistically predicted: "The condom paradox will happen again."
However, reality was quite the opposite: that year, Karex's sales plummeted by 40%, resulting in its first loss since its listing. Since then, global condom sales have not increased but have continued to decline.
This trend is also reflected in the Chinese market. According to the "2024 China Condom Industry Development Report," domestic sales across all channels decreased from 18.786 billion yuan in 2023 to 15.6 billion yuan in 2024, a drop of 17% in one year.
What cooled down even faster than the economy was people's desires. Why has the "condom paradox," once considered an economic barometer, failed now?
Condoms are simply not selling anymore.
A daily necessity product, primarily marketed for its "long-lasting" quality, is the first to show signs of "weakness" in the market.
Currently, the condom industry is experiencing a contraction across the entire chain, from upstream production capacity and midstream brands to downstream sales. The contraction of the upstream rubber supply chain, the collective decline of leading brands in the midstream, and the continued sluggishness of downstream sales all point to one reality: an industry winter has arrived.
The industry generally believes that the market is unlikely to recover in the short term.
The signs of contraction had already appeared five years ago. With reduced social interaction and slower cross-regional circulation, the natural rubber industry, the main raw material for condoms, was the first to be affected. In 2020, the Malaysian government implemented a "Movement Control Order," causing Karex, the world's largest condom manufacturer, to temporarily cease production. According to foreign media reports, this shutdown resulted in a short-term global shortage of "over 100 million condoms."
[Image source: Karex official website]
Although Karex later resumed production and made up for the shortfall, they didn't anticipate that the real crisis was yet to come. Between 2020 and 2022 alone, Karex's condom sales dropped by 40%. To cope with the crisis, Karex had to convert some of its production lines to manufacture medical gloves, which also use rubber materials. However, as of 2024, its condom business revenue has still not recovered to its level five years prior.
At the mid-stream brand level, once-dominant condom giants are experiencing a collective slowdown.
Data shows that Durex's sales in China have plummeted, with sales on one e-commerce platform falling from 3.722 million units in 2019 to 842,000 units in 2021; as of 2024, its online market share in China has shrunk to 29.3%. Even including offline channels, the overall share is less than 40%, far below the high point of over 50% in 2019.
[Data source: 2024-2025 Condom Industry Statistics and Brand Financial Reports]
The well-known domestic brand Jissbon has also experienced a continuous decline in sales. Since 2022, Jissbon, along with brands like Durex and Okamoto, has been in a slump. As of last year, Jissbon still publicly stated: "Market share and sales performance are declining year by year."
Even more serious, condom-related companies are experiencing a large-scale "deregistration wave." Statistics show that between 2020 and 2024, more than 78,000 condom-related companies nationwide went out of business, with an average of 17,300 companies deregistered each year.
The sluggishness in downstream sales further confirms this trend. In 2024, the Chinese condom market size was only 15.6 billion yuan, a 25% decrease compared to 20.8 billion yuan in 2020, representing four consecutive years of negative growth, with an average annual decline of approximately 6%. Even JinGe, the representative of "domestically produced Viagra," was not spared: its sales volume decreased by 13.2% year-on-year in 2024, and its sales revenue dropped by over 20%. This may reflect, to some extent, a significant decrease in some users' participation in sexual activity.
The weakening of sexual demand has further dragged down the "intimacy economy." According to Sina Finance, the number of KTVs nationwide plummeted from a peak of 150,000 in 2015 to less than 40,000 in the first half of 2024; nightclub traffic generally declined by 70%-80%, and the number of people visiting bars decreased by over 66%.
Intimate consumption, which once quietly thrived in the nightlife, is now rapidly receding, which in turn suppresses the actual demand for condoms, forming a negative feedback loop.
[Image source: TV series "Your Lies Are Also Sweet"]
Objectively speaking, the decline in condom sales is due to multiple factors. Southern Weekend once cited industry data indicating that nearly half of condom use in the Chinese market occurs outside the home, with hotels being a typical location. However, the average hotel occupancy rate nationwide in 2024 was only 58.8%, the second lowest level in the past five years. Reduced travel and overnight stays directly weakened demand in non-household settings.
At the same time, contraceptive methods are becoming increasingly diversified. In 2023-2024, emerging contraceptive methods such as subcutaneous implants, contraceptive patches, and short-acting oral contraceptives showed a trend of "price increase and volume increase." In 2023, the national usage of subcutaneous implants reached 420,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 46%; the retail sales of short-acting oral contraceptives reached 980 million yuan, an increase of 24%.
